MA Xiao,etc:Regional Distribution of Transfer Payments and its Moderating Effect on Fiscal Revenues’ Disparity

Abstract: This article first constructs an effect coefficient of transfer payments by using the Gini Coefficient of fiscal revenues with and without the transfer payments respectively, which measures the moderating influence on regional disparity of fiscal revenues from 2003 to 2011. We find that transfer payments narrowed the discrepancy of fiscal revenues with an increasing trend. However, should we optimize the current regional distribution structure of transfer payments? Before answering this question, we test it by Rank Sum Test and realize that per capita fiscal revenues and per capita transfer payments have consistent distribution to a large extent. That is to say that many provinces with high fiscal revenues obtain more transfer payments, and vice versa. Thus, we are supposed to optimize the regional distribution structure of transfer payments. By Shift-share Analysis, we investigate the impact factors that contribute to the regional distribution of transfer payments, and the result shows that the fiscal effort made by provincial government doesn’t produce the increase of transfer payments in eastern China, while it is opposite in central and western China.

Keywords: Transfer Payments, Regional Distribution, Disparity of Fiscal Revenues, Moderating Effect