Abstract: China’s economy is currently on a modest recovery path, but its foundation still remains fragile. According to our projections, the rate of GDP growth in 2013 might be over 8 percent and higher than the rate for this year. In the next 5-10 years, the accelerating growth trends seem to reach an end, and China’s growth tends to step into a new phase characterized by the structural deceleration. We predict that the potential growth rate might fall into a range of 7-8 percent per year. Moreover, according to the estimates on the non-agricultural employment elasticity and labor force supply, in 2013-2017, a 7-percent annual growth is sufficient to achieve the full employment of urban and rural people. It implies that instead of the rapid growth rate, China’s macroeconomic objectives for the next 5-10 years should focus more on the development quality, which refers to the improvement in microeconomic efficiency, increasing competiveness and stimulating technological innovations. Accordingly, the policy concerns should shift from demand-side management to supply-side management.
Keywords: Structural Deceleration, Supply-side Management, Growth Stabilization, Efficiency Improvement
source:Finance & Trade Economics,No.1,2013