U.S. Unemployment Down Slightly in Mid-July

U.S. Unemployment Down Slightly in Mid-July
U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.9% in mid-July, down 0.1 percentage points from June and May. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also declined 0.1 points, to 7.7% in mid-July.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking surveys conducted from June 15 to July 15, including interviews with more than 30,000 U.S. adults -- 68.0% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the adjustment used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the same month of the previous year.

On both an unadjusted and an adjusted basis, the mid-July unemployment readings, if sustained the rest of the month, would be the lowest monthly rates since Gallup began tracking unemployment daily in January 2010. Gallup's adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the downward seasonal adjustment of 0.2 points the BLS applied in July 2011. Gallup's unadjusted unemployment rate for July 2011 was 8.8% and the adjusted rate was 8.6% -- both substantially higher than they are now.

The Percentage Working Part Time but Wanting a Full-Time Job Down From June

The percentage of Americans working part time but looking for full-time work was 9.3% in mid-July, on an unadjusted basis, down slightly from the 9.5% in June, but up slightly from 9.2% a year ago.

Underemployment Down From a Year Ago, at Lowest Level Since 2010

Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure, which combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work, is 17.2% in mid-July, down from 17.5% in June. The underemployment rate is also down from 18.0% last July and ties its lowest monthly level since January 2010, when Gallup Daily tracking of the metric began.

Implications

Both the U.S. government's unadjusted unemployment rate of 8.4% in June and its adjusted rate of 8.2% are substantially higher than Gallup's June readings. As a result, it is possible that the government will report a decline in the unemployment rate for July because its measurements, which are based on a one-week reference period in the middle of the month, catch up with Gallup's, which track unemployment continuously throughout each month. Additionally, if the recent sharp decline in the government's jobless claims to 350,000 continues, there is a greater likelihood that the government will report a lower unemployment rate for July.

On the other hand, BLS payroll survey results have shown modest increases, averaging about 75,000 new jobs monthly during the second quarter. But these slight increases are generally not enough to lower the unemployment rate. Further, the early July decline in Gallup's economic confidence measure, as well as the sharp drop in June retail sales, provides little reason for optimism about reducing unemployment in the months ahead.

Regardless, even with the mid-July decline of 0.1 points, Gallup's unemployment data show little improvement during the past three months -- not good news for those looking for a job, the nation's retailers, or the future course of the U.S. economy.
Fgrom:http://www.gallup.com
Updated: July 17, 2012