LIU Baihui:Measurement of VAT Reforms Impact on Price: Based on the Input-output Table

Abstract：Under the background of shifting economic growth rate, its crucial to keep a moderate price level.VAT reform has a profound impact on macro-economy, and the price system will be influenced inevitably.Using Input-output price model, this paper reveals the reforms influence on tax burden, and calculates the impact of reform on PPI and CPI.Furthermore, this paper makes assumptions and forecasts of the following tax rate merging reform.The empirical results show that, the PPI of almost all industries has floated downward due to the current reform, which is more obvious in pilot industries.Meanwhile, the CPI floats downward by 1.556%.The full coverage plan in tax rate reform is more conducive to inflation rate reducing (-9.91%), next is the full coverage + easy collecting plan(-7.05%), finally is the flat-rate plan(-6.71%).These conclusions are of vital importance to Chinas tax system reform and macro policy making.

Key words： VAT Reform    Tax Burden    Producer Price Index    Consumer Price Index

source:Finance & Trade Economics ,No.10,2015