ZHANG Chengsi, DANG Chao：Information Stickiness and Updating Frequency of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations in China

Abstract：Inflation expectations of different groups have heterogeneous characteristics, and clarifying characteristics of the information stickiness and updating frequency is the important foundation of a forward-looking monetary policy.Using survey data of inflation expectations of households and professionals in China from Quarter 1 of 2001 to Quarter 4 of 2014, this paper investigates the information stickiness and updating frequency of these two representative groups with augmented Carrolls epidemiological model.The results are as follows:(1)unlike the usual hypothesis of one-way influence, expectations of households interact with those of professionals; (2) while expectations of households are proved to be information sticky, expectations of professionals are not; (3)in each quarter, nearly one-third of households update their expectations, while all professionals update information every quarter.

Key words： Inflation Expectations    Epidemiological Model    Households Expectations    Professionals Expectations

source:Finance & Trade Economics ,No.10,2015