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YANG Longhi:The“Inverted U-shape” Hypothesis of Circulation Industry Influence and Empirical Study

发表于 baijinlan
Abstract:Taking the Feder Model as the theoretical framework, based on China's Economic data from 1953 to 2012 and the method of state space model, this paper conducts an empirical study on the dynamic features of circulation industry influence. The result shows that circulation industry influence includes direct effect and indirect effect, in which the former one is dominant, and the latter one plays a weak role. The relationship between circulation industry influence and the level of economic development shows a significant “inverted U-shape”. Servitization of economic structure is a significant external constraint factor. The results imply that, for circulation industry, the direct influence of the scale expansion will be weakened, while there will be great potential space for the indirect influence of innovative transformation. It implies that there will be less space for the promotion of direct effect which depends on scale expansion, while more space will be created for indirect effect which focuses on innovative transformation.

Key words: Circulation Industry    Influence    National Economy    State Space Model

source:Finance & Trade Economics ,No.8,2015