YAN Kun, LIU Chenjie:Estimation on GDP Growth in China's ‘New Normal’ Period

Abstract：This paper studied China's potential GDP growth in the “New Normal” period, and estimated the potential growth rate from the perspectives of demographic dividend, capital stock and total factor growth rates, according to the neoclassical growth equation Meanwhile, based on China's current situation, following factors are also taken into account: (1) political level, which is the overall requirement on building moderately prosperous society; (2) the potential demand from new urbanization in China; (3) constraints in China's development, which are from resources, environment and debt stress Overall, the potential GDP growth in the ‘New Normal’ period is changing along with the changes in demographic structure, capital endowment, environmental requirements and other constraints We believe that a reasonable economic growth rate of China's economy in the ‘New Normal’ period should be around 75% in 2014, the average for the period of 2016-2020 is about 6 5%, and the trend would be downward On the basis of analysis, we made some suggestions on macrocontrol, social welfare policy and relative reform measures.

Key words： New Normal    Potential Growth    New Urbanization    Environmental Constraints

source:Finance & Trade Economics ,No.1,2015