GUO Kesha:Trend, Effect and Countermeasures of China's Real Estate Market Adjustment

Abstract：Currently, the fluctuation of China's real estate market is a late periodic adjustment in essence. Combined China's situation with international experience, we can estimate that this round of periodic adjustment may last for 3-5 years and the adjustment range of most cities will be 30% of the peak of commercial housing sales volume and price under the condition of no accidents. The following increase of US federal fund rate may exert more pressure on China's real estate market adjustment. The main reasons are relative excess supply of housing, exaggerate increase range of housing price, changing market expectation, tight environment of currency credit, and the intervention of local governments deepens the market contradiction. Market adjustment will exert fierce impact on economic growth and financial operation, but the impact is hysteretic, gradually deepened, and differentiated among regions. In order to remove the negative impact, the government should obey market rules and adopt efficient policies to stabilize market, operate economy and promote reform.

Key words： Real Estate Market    Sale Price    Policy Orientation

source:Finance & Trade Economics ,No.12,2014