LI Wen:On the Estimation of the House Property Tax Revenue and the Feasibility of the House Property Tax Acting as the Main Tax of the Local Tax System in China

Abstract  This paper designs four plans for the house property tax in terms of the breadth of tax base and the level of tax rate, of which the characteristics are narrow tax base and low tax rate, narrow tax base and high tax rate, broad tax base and low tax rate, and broad tax base and high tax rate respectively, and estimates the tax revenues of operational property and non-operational property with different methods in different plans.The result is that the proportions of the house property tax revenue in the local tax revenue in the four plans are 12.52%, 22.76%, 13.20% and 23.88% respectively, which means that there is still a certain gap in light of the requirement of the main tax of the local tax system.Meanwhile, seeing that the feasibilities of the plans with broad tax base and high tax rate are rather poor in the short run and the plan with narrow tax base and low tax rate is more feasible, although the reform of the house property tax plays an essential role in improving the local tax system, the house property tax will not act as the main tax of the local tax system in the near future.

Key words： House Property Tax    Revenue Estimation    Local Tax System    Main Tax

Source: Finance & Trade Economics , No.9, 2014