TANG Jing:RCEP:Integration Dilemma and Impact on China's Economic Welfare and Industries

Abstract  Based on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) framework, this paper analyzes the difficulties and challenges faced by RCEP regional integration from two aspects: tariff concession and service trade liberalization degree, mainly focusing on the FTAs among ASEAN members and five “ASEAN+1” FTAs signed by ASEAN and six other external members. Then, by using GTAP model, this paper makes simulation forecast of the impact of RCEP integration on Chinas economy, trade and industries. The result shows that, in general, the integration of RCEP will strongly promote the growth of Chinas foreign trade, improve Chinas real GDP growth and welfare level, however, the impact on different industries are different. Finally, in view of Chinas participation in the RCEP integration, this paper delivers a set of recommendations to the government for issues in the path selection, negotiation topics and industry impact, etc.

Key words： RCEP      ASEAN      GTAP      Welfare Effect      Industry Impact

Source: Finance & Trade Economics , No.8, 2014