Abstract: By utilizing gravity model of international trade, we establish Chinese Export Equation to forecast Chinese export potential in the future. Even following our pessimism approach, we anticipate a fairly fast growth rate in short run. By 2017, export flow will be 180% of the flow in 2011. And the rate of export dependence during the next five years will be between 26% and 31%. In the middle and long run, China’s foreign trade will follow the path of slow and steady growth. Annual growth rate between 2020 and 2060 will fall from 10% to 6%, and export amount in 2060 will be above 100 trillion dollar. In meantime, the rate of export dependence will fall to about 17%, and China will achieve the goal of balance development. In the future, Chinese government should highlight the importance of export and make rational economic programming and guidance.
Keywords: Chinese Export Growth, Potential Foresting, Growth Rate, Rate of Export Dependence
source:Finance & Trade Economics ,No2,2014