Abstract: This paper employed the adjusted STIRPAT method to examine the impacts of energy structure, production structure, technology, trade pattern, consumption as well as policies on the turning point of Carbon Emission Kuznets Curve by using the panel data of 14 countries with typical inverted U shape Kuznets curve from 1960 to 2010. The results show that these factors have significant impact on carbon emission per capita but limited impact on the turning point, which shed light on the effectiveness of the turning point prediction through classic EKC model. The prediction of China’s carbon emission turning point through classic EKC model shows that the earliest year will be 2022 given the GDP per capita growth rate and oil price scenario.
Keywords: Carbon Emission, EKC, STIRPAT Mode, Turning Point Prediction
source:Finance & Trade Economics ,No10,2013