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TAO Shigui, YE Yafei:Estimates of Overseas RMB Stock and Its Impact on Domestic Money Supply——Based on the RMB Cross-border Transactions Perspective

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Abstract: With the development of RMB cross-border transactions, the overseas RMB stock is also increasing. What is the specific amount of overseas RMB stock? What are the influencing factors for overseas RMB stock? Does the stock change have an impact on domestic money supply? On the basis of theoretical analysis , this paper will use the indirect calculating method,introduce quasi-currency circulation speed and pre-income variables to the domestic money demand function,and estimate the amount of cross-border transactions from the first quarter of 2006 to the last quarter of 2012 by the method of OLS. According to the results, the SVAR model will be founded to test its impact on the domestic money supply.The results show that the amount of RMB cross-border transactions is rising in ups and downs, and it has impact on the domestic money supply which is not very significant. Based on the above analysis,we put forward a series of reform proposals, such as taking the overseas RMB into domestic monetary policy system, taking appropriate measures to enhance the fluidity of the overseas RMB and so on.

Keywords: Overseas RMB Stock, Domestic Money Supply, Empirical Test

 

source:Finance & Trade Economics ,No9,2013