Abstract: In this paper, we study how important the domestic supply and foreign demand on China's export are and the dynamic effects of various shocks on export by constructing SVAR model. The results of the study show that consumption, investment, foreign income and RMB real effective exchange rate are the main factors of China's export, but the shocks from various factors have different effects on export. Among them, the influence of investment shock is mainly reflected in short-term positive effect; consumption shock will promote the expansion of export in short term, while it will cause export slow-down in long term; foreign income shock can cause the lasting growth of export, but the speed of growth keeps slowing; most of the time, exchange rate shock will have a negative impact on export. Overall, either short-term or long-term, the influence of domestic supply on export is always more important than that of foreign demand.
Keywords: Export, SVAR, Supply and Demand Factors
source:Finance & Trade Economics ,No5,2013