U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment Edges Up in Mid-November

U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment Edges Up in Mid-November
U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 7.4% in mid-November, up from 7.0% in October but below the 7.9% of September. Seasonally adjusted unemployment is 7.9%, up from 7.4% in October but slightly lower than September's 8.1%.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cellphone with approximately 30,000 Americans from Oct. 14-Nov. 15 -- 68.2% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup calculates the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year -- in this case, +0.5 percentage points in November 2011. Gallup's rolling 30-day periods of reference differ significantly from the reference period of the government's monthly reports, which is one week in the first half of the month.

Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed in the workforce with the percentage of those working part time but looking for full-time work. Underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, is 16.3% in mid-November, up from 15.9% in October and not much different from September's 16.5% rate.

The increase in the mid-November 30-day underemployment rate was driven by the increase in its unemployment component; the number of part-timers wanting full-time work was unchanged at 8.9% in mid-November, and was up slightly from 8.6% in September.

Implications

Gallup's unemployment results for the 30 days ending on Nov. 15 suggest that the improvement in the U.S. unemployment situation found in October was short-lived. Still, on an unadjusted basis, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures over the past two months show what might be expected holiday seasonal improvement. U.S. companies increase hiring for the Christmas holidays at this time of year.

At the same time, superstorm Sandy distorted weekly jobless claims, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and may be doing the same to Gallup's unemployment results. The presidential election may also have disrupted the job market for a few days in early November.

Taking seasonal factors into account, it appears that the unemployment rate has remained around 8.0% since May. This seems consistent with other general economic data showing the economy growing slowly, the most recent of these being the 0.3% decline in October retail sales.

Looking ahead, Gallup's mid-November unemployment data have generally provided predictive insight into the official BLS numbers. In turn, Gallup's results suggest that in early December, the BLS could report an unchanged seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for November.
From: http://www.gallup.com
Updated: November 19, 2012