U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment Rate at 7.9% in Mid-September

U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment Rate at 7.9% in Mid-September

 

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 7.9% in mid-September, down 0.2 percentage points from August and a new low since Gallup began collecting employment data in January 2010. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remains unchanged at 8.1% in mid-September.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking surveys conducted by landline and cell phone from Aug. 16-Sept. 15, including interviews with more than 30,000 U.S. adults -- 68.1% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate incorporates the 0.2 upward adjustment used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in September of last year.
The mid-September unadjusted unemployment estimate, if sustained throughout the rest of the month, would be the lowest monthly unadjusted rate since Gallup began tracking unemployment daily in January 2010. Gallup's unadjusted unemployment rate for September 2011 was substantially higher than now at 8.6%.

Fewer Part-Time Workers Seeking Full-Time Work

The percentage of Americans working part time but looking for full-time work is 8.6% in mid-September, as measured without seasonal adjustment, down from the 9.0% in August. This is also down from 9.7% a year ago and the lowest level for this measure since the 8.4% of November 2010.

Underemployment Down From a Year Ago and at a New Low
Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure, which combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work, is 16.6% in mid-September, down from 17.1% in August. The underemployment rate is also down substantially from 18.3% last September and is at its lowest level since January 2010.

Implications

While unadjusted unemployment has improved so far in September, at least part of the improvement is likely due to a seasonal increase in hiring related to Halloween -- which is now a major sales period for the nation's retailers. In fact, the 0.2 seasonal adjustment that the government applied in September 2011 would suggest virtually all the improvement is seasonally related. Further, Gallup's unadjusted unemployment rate has remained between 7.9% and 8.2% since May -- implying a relatively flat job market. Still, the mid-September unadjusted unemployment rate, if maintained for the remainder of the month, is at a new low and is substantially below the 8.6% of a year ago.

It is also worth noting that the percentage of those working part-time but wanting full-time work is near the 8.4% low for this measure. As a result, the underemployment rate is at a new low. This is often seen as a good sign for the U. S. economy because it implies more part-time workers are getting full-time jobs.

Gallup's mid-September adjusted unemployment rate data suggest the BLS will announce no change in the government's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September in its early October reports. This seems consistent with the overall modest improvement in the job market over the past year and what appears to be a muddle-through economy in 2012.
From: http://www.gallup.com
Updated: September 17, 2012