U.S. Economic Confidence Entrenched as Conventions Begin

U.S. Economic Confidence Entrenched as Conventions Begin
Americans' views of the economy remain entrenched in negative territory as both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama prepare to use their respective conventions to make the case that they are the one better equipped to improve the country's economic situation. The Gallup Economic Confidence Index was at -27 for the week ending Aug. 26, similar to the -28 of the previous week and on par with what Gallup has found over the past seven weeks.

The latest weekly average in Gallup 's daily economic confidence metric sets the stage for the two political conventions in which Republicans and Democrats will battle over whether the economy has improved -- and, further, whether it is poised to get better or worse.

Currently, 43% of Americans say economic conditions are "poor," while 13% categorize them as "excellent" (1%) or "good" (12%). The difference results in a current conditions rating of -30, unchanged from the prior week and similar to recent weeks. The remaining 44% call current conditions "only fair."

Looking forward, 59% of Americans perceive the economy to be getting worse, while 35% say it is getting better. The difference results in an economic outlook rating of -24, similar to previous weeks.

From a broader perspective, Americans have been consistently more negative about the economy both now and going forward since June, compared with March through May. Weekly confidence continues to mirror the general levels seen in January.

Politics Clouds Americans' Economic Lenses

Gallup has consistently found wide gaps in economic confidence by political party this year, and the conventions could cause the party differences to expand further. Democrats remain far more positive than Republicans, and this divide could widen as Republicans will undoubtedly paint a negative picture of the economy while the Democrats present a rosier view. In the week ending Aug. 26, Democrats became slightly more positive, but the improvement in their views was mostly offset by independents' increase in negativity. Republicans' views were essentially unchanged from the previous week.

Bottom Line

U.S. economic confidence has been largely entrenched at the same level for the past seven weeks -- echoing the steady nature of President Obama's job approval rating and presidential preferences between Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney. While the race itself may be primed for a shake-up, Americans may continue to vacillate on their views of the economy until they know which party's standard-bearer will take the helm next January. At the same time, the conventions could make Democrats more positive about the economy in the near term and Republicans more negative. Those shifts could easily cancel each other out unless one party makes particular headway with independents.

Gallup Daily tracking of economic confidence ratings among Americans and by party will reveal any measurable shifts that take place in the coming weeks.
From: http://www.gallup.com
Updated: August 28, 2012