U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment 8.3% in Mid-August

U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment 8.3% in Mid-August
U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 8.3% in mid-August, compared with 8.2% at the end of July. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is also 8.3%, up from 8.0% at the end of July.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cell phone from July 16-Aug. 15, including interviews with more than 30,000 U.S. adults, 68% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup calculates a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year.

U.S. underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, is 17.0% in mid-August, compared with 17.1% at the end of July.

Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure, which combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work, has been declining since April due to a drop in the latter component. The current underemployment rate is the lowest monthly or mid-monthly rate since Gallup began collecting employment data daily in 2010.

The number of part-timers wanting full-time work has dropped more than a full percentage point in the last 3 ½ months, and is at the lowest point since Gallup began tracking employment. Given that the size of the workforce has not declined during the same period, this is a positive sign that in recent months more Americans working part time have found the full-time employment they desire.

Bottom Line

The uptick in Gallup's not-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted unemployment rates suggests that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report little improvement, and possibly an increase, when it releases unemployment numbers for August on Sept. 7. The BLS collects data during a one-week reference period at mid-month, and Gallup's Daily mid-month data are a good early predictor of the BLS monthly jobs report.

Despite lackluster unemployment numbers, the declining number of part-timers wanting full-time work may be the silver lining. While employers are not hiring at rates substantial enough to reduce the unemployment rate, it does appear that they are making full-time opportunities available to part-time workers. Many employers have been hesitant to convert part-time positions to full time as they waited to see how the economic recovery would play out. Unemployment remains a chronic problem, but the decline in the underemployment rate may be a positive sign for hiring in the coming months.
From: http://www.gallup.com
Updated: August 17, 2012