U.S. Job Creation Slips in July

U.S. Job Creation Slips in July
Gallup's U.S. Job Creation Index slipped to +17 in July, after registering at or near +20 from April through June. Despite the drop, the +17 continues to be one of the more positive net hiring values Gallup has recorded since 2009, though it still trails the readings seen as the 2008-2009 recession was just starting.

The Gallup Job Creation Index is a measure of U.S. adult employees' perceptions of hiring conditions where they work. On average in July, 34% of all full- and part-time workers said their employers are hiring and expanding the size of their workforces, and 17% said their employers are letting workers go and reducing the size of their workforces, resulting in the +17 net hiring figure.

The hiring component of the index fell slightly to 34% in July, from 36% in June, while the firing component moved to 17%, from 16%. This backslide in hiring mirrors Americans' flagging economic confidence in July.

Hiring Remains Most Sluggish in the West

Net hiring in July remains strongest in the Midwest, now at +21, and weakest in the West, now +13, in line with the pattern seen for most of the past year.

July hiring held fairly steady in the East and West, but softened in the South and, to a lesser degree, in the Midwest.

Private-Sector Hiring Slows Slightly

Gallup's Job Creation Index averaged +22 in July among non-government U.S. workers, down slightly from +24 in June. Among government workers, the index averaged -5 in July, similar to -4 in June. Gallup has documented a significant gap between government and non-government hiring since early 2010.

Additionally, Gallup breaks down government workers by level of government. The trends on this basis indicate that local government hiring in July may have slowed more than hiring at the federal level. Hiring increased slightly at the state level. More generally, government hiring is a bit more robust at the state level than at either the local or federal level, although still below hiring in the private sector.

Bottom Line

After climbing to a roughly four-year high of +20 in recent months, the Gallup Job Creation Index gave up some of that improvement in July, slipping to +17. The decline was seen more in the South and Midwest than elsewhere, and slightly more in non-government and local government workplaces. Such dips, however, have been common in the past three years as the Gallup Job Creation Index has recovered from its 2009 recession lows. A second month of decline in August, should that happen, would be a more disconcerting economic sign.

 

From: http://www.gallup.com
Updated: August 1, 2012