No Christmas sales surge seen in November

Retailers are braced for a tough Christmas after a fall in spending in November.

According to official figures on Thursday, British shoppers tightened their belts in the run-up to the biggest shopping period of the year, spending 0.1% less last month than in October.

The fall hit high street shops especially hard after as shoppers increasingly turned to the internet, the Office for National Statistics said in its monthly retail sales report.

A late surge is still expected by retail analysts, but it is increasingly unlikely there will be enough of a spending binge to make up for November's lost ground.

Chris Williamson, chief UK economist at financial data providers Markit, said the lack of consumer spending would be another factor dragging the UK economy nearer to its third recession in four years.

"The underlying trend in retail sales has deteriorated to the worst since September 2011, and sales could even fall over the fourth quarter as a whole according to the indications available so far," he said.

"With production and trade data also turning down towards the end of the year, its looking very unlikely that the consumer is going to save the economy from sliding back into another contraction."

The prospect of a triple-dip recession has undermined consumer confidence and is expected to keep spending subdued well into the new year.

The ONS also pointed out that through the ups and downs of the last five years shops had suffered flat sales, making the recent lack of consumer confidence part of what has become a long term trend.

With less than a week to go before Christmas, surveys have shown shoppers continuing to stay at home.

A Visa Europe study showed spending in the first week of December was almost 3% down on the same period a year ago.

Richard Lowe, head of retail at Barclays, was more upbeat.

"November proved to be an uninspiring month, however, the final festive push is underway, with many retailers extending opening hours to ensure they get every last penny through the door," he said.

The ONS said: "Compared with November 2011, the quantity of goods bought (all retailing seasonally adjusted sales volumes) in November 2012 was estimated to have increased by 0.9%. Between the same periods the amount spent (all retailing seasonally adjusted sales values) was estimated to have increased by 1.5%.

"Looking at the monthly picture (November 2012 compared with October 2012) there was no change in the quantity of goods bought and a fall of 0.1% in the amount spent, following decreases in both the quantity bought and the amount spent between September and October," it added.