Italy waits impatiently to hear if Mario Monti will run again

An election campaign that promises to be chaotic and confusing even by Italian standards gets under way on Sunday when Mario Monti is expected to announce whether he will stand again as a candidate to be prime minister.

The outgoing technocrat premier, who has implemented painful austerity measures during his 13 months in office, will hold a press conference that will be closely monitored by other contenders, including former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, with elections expected on 24 February.

Both Berlusconi and centre-left candidate Pier Luigi Bersani – who currently leads the polls on 30% – have warned Monti to abandon a plan to head a coalition of small centrist parties that could lure their votes away.

"The country really needs clarity from Monti," said Roberto D'Alimonte, a professor of politics at the LUISS university in Rome. "I hope this guy makes up his mind on Sunday."

Monti resigned on Friday after Berlusconi's party withdrew support for the former academic, who has raised taxes, sought to cut red tape, passed anti-corruption legislation and reformed Italy's pension system, winning praise from the financial markets.

Monti told foreign diplomats on Friday that he had left Italy "more trustworthy". Should he decide to stand again after resigning, it will turn a crucial election campaign into a highly unpredictable race.

Berlusconi spent last week doing back-to-back interviews – often with fawning interviewers on his own TV channels – condemning Monti's brand of austerity and promising to cut MPs' privileges in a bid to steal votes from the comedian Beppe Grillo, who is running on a populist anti-sleaze ticket and outranking Berlusconi in the polls.

With his support now below 20%, Berlusconi may not pull off a comeback triumph, but he has a chance of becoming pivotal in the senate if he can win back votes in the wealthy northern region of Lombardy, where his officials have been implicated in a stream of scandals ranging from buying votes from the mafia to claiming ice-creams on expenses.

To pull it off, Berlusconi needs to reforge his ties with the Northern League, which has resisted his overtures to date, although party leader Roberto Maroni has indicated a decision will be announced on 29 December.

Italians weary of Berlusconi's scandalous private life may sit up and listen when he claims that Monti's economics are derailing rather than accelerating Italy's economy, with unemployment at a 13-year high of 11.1%. The markets may like Monti, but 61% of Italians, fed up with his swingeing housing tax, do not want him back. "There has been speculation that Monti may even announce on Sunday he is not running," said D'Alimonte. "Monti knows he cannot win, but would only get at most 15% to 20% if he campaigns well."

A fifth of the vote would, however, be enough to form a coalition with Bersani in the senate to keep Berlusconi at bay.

"If Monti doesn't run and Bersani wins, but Berlusconi gets his alliance with the League and can stop the centre-left controlling the senate, we might risk new elections," said D'Alimonte.