Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS AG, said the June figure was within expectations and the year-on-year decline was a sign that credit supply growth was decelerating.
"The credit supply was growing too fast in the first five months. The pace will gradually slow in the second half," she said.
New yuan loans for the first half reached 5.08 trillion yuan. Wang forecast the full-year figure at about 8.5 trillion yuan.
That level of lending, she said, will lead to a further slowdown in economic growth in the fourth quarter after an anticipated slight rebound in the third.
According to the central bank, total social financing, which is the government's broadest measure of credit, was 1.04 trillion yuan in June, down from 1.78 trillion yuan in June 2012.
The decline was seen by analysts as a reflection of the central bank's effort to clear up off-balance-sheet borrowing.
Wang estimated that aggregate financing in the second half will be reduced further to between 6 and 7 trillion yuan, compared with 10.15 trillion yuan in the first half.
The broad money supply (M2) expanded 14 percent year-on-year to 105 trillion yuan as of the end of June. The growth rate was 1.8 percentage points lower than in the previous month.
Experts said money supply growth might continue declining in the second half amid a cooling economy.
Source: China Daily
Time: 2013-07-13